George Markezinis
Decarbonization plans and the chance of the EU’s goal to reduce GHG emissions by 55 percent by 2030 are realistically not feasible. Our progress in addressing climate change is significantly behind schedule. In fact, recent data shows we are facing potential excess emissions of up to 29% in various European economic sectors, which means we are falling significantly short of the 55% reduction targets. The climate crisis continues to intensify, with scientists warning that global temperatures will rise by 2.1°C even if countries achieve their current climate targets. This direction entails severe economic implications, as an under 4°C warming scenario will have the average person becoming 40% poorer. While the projected growth of the global market for clean technologies from $700 billion to over $2 trillion by 2035 offers hope, we must act quickly to prevent irreversible global warming impacts. The European Commission estimates that more than €700 billion in annual investment is required just to meet 2030 climate targets, highlighting the massive gap between current efforts and what is actually needed.
Nations’ current climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have placed the world on a ruinous trajectory toward temperature rises of 2.5-2.9°C above pre-industrial levels this century. Furthermore, without strengthened action, global emissions in 2025 could reach approximately 53 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent—54% higher than 1990 levels. The gap between rhetoric and reality remains substantial; countries need to cut 2030 emissions by 28% to achieve the 2°C goal and 42% for the 1.5°C target.
According to UNEP’s latest report, unless emissions are dramatically reduced, it will become impossible to establish viable pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Additionally, projections for fossil fuel production show an alarming trend—by 2030, production is expected to be 110% higher than what’s needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
The warming rate of 0.18°C per decade since 1970 has nearly doubled to approximately 0.3°C over the past 15 years. This acceleration is evident across multiple climate indicators. Ocean temperatures hit record highs for 450 consecutive days in 2023–2024, with satellite data showing the rate of ocean warming has more than quadrupled since 1985.
Perhaps most concerning, Earth’s heat content accumulation has consistently accelerated since the 1960s at a rate of 0.15 ± 0.05 (W/m2)/decade. Consequently, 2023 became the warmest year in the 174-year observational record, with temperatures approximately 1.40°C above pre-industrial levels.
Scientists have repeatedly warned that we are rapidly approaching several dangerous planetary thresholds. The collapse of major ice sheets, widespread coral reef mortality, and permanent ecosystem damage are no longer distant threats. Based on current curves, as much as half of today’s Amazon rainforest could face degradation by 2050.
The consequences of crossing these tipping points would be catastrophic. Among the emergencies would be the disruption of food systems, the acceleration of sea level rise, and the initiation of mass displacement. Moreover, even if all current climate commitments were fulfilled, global temperatures would still rise between 2.1°C and 2.8°C by 2100. Particularly troubling is that under existing policies, there’s a 97% chance of exceeding 2°C and a 37% chance of surpassing 3°C by the century’s end.
Five years after its initial presentation, the European Green Deal continues to encounter piling-up challenges throughout the continent. The blueprint for Europe’s carbon-free future has dealt with significant resistance as political landscapes shift and economic priorities evolve.
Although the EU Climate Law makes the 2050 climate neutrality goal legally binding, intermediate objectives such as the rise of far-right parties have been a roadblock in its progress, hampering the passing of ambitious climate policies. Several nations have backtracked on environmental commitments, like Germany’s withdrawal of support for the phase-out of coal-burning power plants by 2030, citing energy insecurity concerns, or Sweden and Finland both cutting taxes designed to reduce CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, Italy redirected funds originally earmarked for green transition toward establishing itself as a natural gas hub.
In addition to the calls to oppose climate regulation are the powerful interests of big corporations. Representatives from the world’s top seven fossil fuel companies held over 1,000 meetings with European officials between 2019 and 2024, with two-thirds concerning the Green Deal. Their combined lobbying budget approached €64 million, placing them among Brussels’ most well-resourced organizations. Notably, industry associations representing transport and heavy industry sectors have been particularly negative, pushing back against the European Commission’s ‘Fit for 55’ package. This resistance has directly influenced policy outcomes—an industry lobbying blitz successfully derailed a key climate vote in the European Parliament.
According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the planet’s biodiversity provides ecosystem services valued at $125–145 trillion annually. Nevertheless, this natural capital faces unprecedented degradation, with the World Bank estimating that the collapse of select ecosystem services could result in global economic losses of $2.7 trillion annually by 2030. These losses extend beyond distant ecosystems. Within the euro area alone, 72% of 4.2 million non-financial corporations critically depend on ecosystem services.
Some of the economic activities that lead daily to the collapse of biodiversity include harmful algal blooms, damage to coral reefs, or the displacement of fish populations due to warming waters, costing billions in recreational revenues.
Ocean ecosystems also exhibit some of the most alarming biodiversity collapses. Marine populations have plummeted by 56% since 1970, certainly not as severe as freshwater ecosystems’ 85% decline, yet still destructive.
The oceans have become 30% more acidic than 200 years ago—the fastest change in ocean chemistry in 50 million years. This acidification makes shell formation difficult for marine organisms. Half of all coral reefs have disappeared since 1990, with approximately 90% likely to die by 2050 as temperatures exceed recorded thresholds. Between 2009 and 2018 alone, climate change drove the loss of 14% of the world’s coral from reefs.
Ocean warming likewise affects marine food webs by changing phosphorus cycles, making phytoplankton less nutritious for zooplankton and fish. Therefore, the economic and ecological damage threatens not just biodiversity but humanity’s future prosperity.
Even though climate policies have been wobbled globally, technology innovations have made their way forward. As policymakers struggle to implement effective regulations, breakthroughs in clean energy, carbon management, and artificial intelligence present potentially transformative solutions.
The past couple of years, renewables have become decisively more cost-effective than fossil fuels, with solar and wind energy significantly undercutting traditional alternatives. Familiarity with carbon capture technology is gaining momentum. In 2023, storage capacity rose by 70%; in the United States and Europe, carbon capture projects received over $20 billion in funding. However, we must resolve technical challenges, primarily related to improving capture rates and achieving the 98-99% required for meaningful climate impact.
Artificial intelligence has proven to be a transformative tool in providing climate solutions. Understanding and utilizing efficient AI applications have contributed to targeting rapidly evolving climate challenges. Some of the AI’s powerful tools have optimized electricity grids and improved renewable energy efficiency. Advanced AI technologies now enable the prediction of extreme weather events and facilitate the tracking of environmental changes. With regards to US venture capital activity, it is noteworthy that, despite the overall decline, climate technology funding has remained stable, which indicates that there is awareness of climate risk. Nevertheless, ongoing funding is needed, as there are climate-tech companies reporting their cush runway is limited to an annual basis.
When putting together the current data, it is not possible to abstain from not witnessing the growing chasm between climate ambitions and tangible actions. The ambitious decarbonization plans, particularly the EU’s 2030 goals, appear further unattainable, with the current orbit indicating significant emissions overshoot. The intensifying climate crisis, evidenced by accelerating global warming and unprecedented ocean heat, carries severe economic consequences. While the burgeoning clean technology market offers a glimmer of hope, the massive investment gap and the alarming disconnect between pledged emissions reductions and the necessary cuts to meet critical temperature targets underscore the urgent need for dramatically accelerated and strengthened climate action on a global scale. Failure to bridge this alarming gap risks locking in irreversible climate impacts.
